Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Dec 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
December 25, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9754 (S09E38) was
the most active area producing two M1 flares this past day. This
sunspot group is a growing E-type region developing increased
magnetic complexity. Region 9742 (N12W57) remains the largest
sunspot group on the disk with area in excess of 1000 millionths.
However this region does not appear to have significant magnetic
complexity and has not produced  major activity. New Region 9755
(S05E64) rotated onto the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9742, 9748, and
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high-speed coronal
hole stream apparent yesterday has passed and solar wind parameters
have returned to nominal values.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 259
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec  260/260/255
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 217
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.