NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9283 (S12E39)
produced two events of equal magnitude, C5/Sf, representing the
greatest activity for the period.  The first was in progress at the
beginning of the period, peaking at 24/2101 UTC, and the second
occurred at 25/1600 UTC.  Other activity included several lesser
C-class flares from Region 9283, and a C2/Sf from Region 9280
(N09W04).   Optical reports of filament disruptions near S36W45 and
N30W60 were received (at 25/0432 and 25/1213 UTC, respectively), and
while no correlated SOHO/LASCO observations are available at
present, a lack of corresponding radio activity suggests no
significant associated CMEs.  New Region 9287 (S16E60) was numbered
today.  Also of note - a partial solar eclipse occurred over most of
North America today, from 25/1615 to 1815 UTC, with only minor
impacts on solar optical and radio observation sites.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 9280 and 9283 are the most likely sources for
isolated M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Dec 187
Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec  190/190/185
90 Day Mean        25 Dec 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  010/010-007/010-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01