NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 25 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 25 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 9591 (S19E32)
produced several M-class flares and an X5/3b event at 25/1645 UTC. 
The event had an associated 8100 sfu tenflare and a Type II and Type
IV radio sweep.  SOHO/LASCO images observed a well defined coronal
mass ejection with this event.  This region continues to develop and
retains a large Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration.  Region 9596
(N23E79) was numbered today.  The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux
for today may also be slightly enhanced as a result of the earlier
event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region 9591 producing M-class flares and a
chance for another major flare from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active through the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 26 August due to possible
coronal hole affects.  Active to minor storm conditions are expected
for 27 and 28 August as a result of the X-class event at 25/1645
UTC.  A greater than 10 MeV proton event is also possible on 26
August from the activity today.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     75/75/50
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 199
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  190/195/200
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 152
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/015-035/035-030/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor storm           05/30/20
Major-severe storm    01/20/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/45/40
Minor storm           10/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/15