NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2002
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jan 24 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a long-duration C7 at 24/0439 UTC. Images from the SOHO
spacecraft suggest that the source of the event was from just behind
the east limb. Other areas only produced a few small subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is possible in Regions 9787
(S06W06) or 9788 (N18W30).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 231
Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 225/225/225
90 Day Mean 24 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01