NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2001

:Product: 0124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jan 25 0030 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate during the past 24
hours. An increase in flare production and x-ray background began
yesterday around 1800Z, leading to frequent C-class flares and one
M-class flare during the past 24 hours. Today's largest event was an
M1/2f at 1447Z from Region 9311 (N06W76). Most of the new activity
was from Region 9311 although Region 9313 (S07W12) and Region 9321
(S06E31) also contributed to some of the activity. Regions 9313 and
9321 appear to be growing slowly.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate tomorrow, with a fair-to-good chance for another M-class
event from Region 9311. A decrease in activity and background
levels is anticipated on the second and third days, however, 
with the departure of Region 9311 from the solar disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours. There was a minor storm period at high latitudes from
1200-1500Z. Solar wind signatures showed characteristics of swept up
flow, and perhaps a portion of transient flow, but there was no
indication of passing through the main part of the driver. Greater
than 10 MeV protons remained enhanced but were beginning to decline
near day's end.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24
hours. A decrease to mostly unsettled is expected for the second and
third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
Class M    60/40/20
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     15/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jan 173
Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  175/170/165
90 Day Mean        24 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  015/015-012/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
.