NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 24 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z

to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 9830 (S17W64) produced

several C-class events, the largest being a C7/Sf at 23/2250Z, and a

C9/Sf flare at 24/2031Z. This region continues to be the largest and

most active region on the visible disk and still maintains a delta

configuration. Region 9844 (N22E18), a relatively small D type

group, developed some complexity and produced occasional C-class

flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 24/2052Z. Region 9841 (S20W47)

produced a C4/Sf at 24/1447Z, with a Type II sweep (800km/s). New

flux emergence and occasional subflares were observed in Regions

9839 (S17W35), and 9842 (S19W23). New Regions 9846 (S04W37), and

9847 (S14E50) were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. Region 9830 still maintains good potential for an

M-class flare with an isolated chance of a major flare. Regions

9839, 9842, and 9844 will likely produce occasional C-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with very isolated unsettled

periods.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to continue at mostly quiet levels with occasional

unsettled periods.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

Class M    50/50/40

Class X    10/10/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           24 Feb 193

Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb  190/185/180

90 Day Mean        24 Feb 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  005/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  007/005-007/005-007/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/25

Minor storm           10/10/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/05