Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 Dec 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
December 24, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 24 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  There were three
low-level M-class flares during the past day, an M1/Sf at 23/2336
UTC in Region 9748 (S10W21), an M1/1n at 24/0032 UTC in Region 9754
(S08E48), and an optically uncorrelated M3 at 24/1400 UTC. Limited
real-time, ground-based and satellite data hampered analysis all
day. Region 9742 (N11W44) still appears to be the largest sunspot
group on the disk but seems to be a stacked bipolar region of fairly
simple magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate levels.  M-class flares are possible from Regions 9742,
9748, and 9754.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels under
the influence of a high-speed solar wind stream. The culprit coronal
hole is presumed to be the one in the southwest quadrant.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 275
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  280/275/270
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  015/015-010/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/20
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.