NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 24 Dec 2000
:Product: 1224RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Dec 24 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2000 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels, due to a single M-class flare: an M1/Sf at 24/1115 UTC, from Region 9283 (S12E53). This region also produced several elevated C-class events throughout the day, and exhibits notable growth in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday. Region 9280 (N09E80) remains the largest spot group on the disk, and also shows some increase in magnetic complexity, though did not produce any notable flare activity today. Two new regions were numbered: 9285 (N06E59) and 9286 (N30W47), with the former a source of some subfaint C-class flare activity. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Regions 9280 and 9283 are the most likely sources of potential M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet at middle and high latitudes throughout the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Some chance of active levels exists for day one, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Dec 193 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 012/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 012/012-010/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 .
