NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Region 9511 (N10E13) became
extremely active during the period, producing several C-class
events, three M-class events, and an impulsive X1/1b flare at
23/0408 UTC. Although still a relatively small region, 9511 has
quickly developed into a 22-spot Dao group with a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. Region 9503 (N16W61) was also active during
the period, producing several optical subflares and an M6/1n event
at 22/2222 UTC. Three new regions were numbered: 9514 (N12E54), 9515
(S06E46), and 9516 (N12E70).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Several regions have the potential to produce minor
M-class events and Region 9411 could continue to produce isolated M
and X-class events. EIT imagery shows a potentially active region
beginning to rotate onto the disk in the northeast quadrant.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 206
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  205/200/200
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01