Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 Jul 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
July 23, 2001
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9545 (N08W72)
produced today’s largest event, a C5/Sf at 0623 UTC. This region
continues to grow and exhibits bright plage as it approaches the
west limb. The group produced additional C-class events throughout
the day. Region 9543 (S25W31) continues to be the largest group on
the disk. The group shows the addition of several newly emerged
small spots, while the older large spots seem to be in decay. An
impressive CME was seen in the LASCO/C2 field of view just off the
northwest limb today at 1131 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a
brief active period from 0300-0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days, with a
fair chance for some active periods. The increase is anticipated
from possible coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 143
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.