NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 23 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z

to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the period

was a C4/Sf at 23/0630Z from developing Region 9841 (S20W33).  Region

9830 (S19W49) continues to be the largest and the most active region on

the visible disk, and produced several minor C-class flares. This

region has been in slow decay over the past few days; however, new

flux emergence was noted today and a weak delta configuration still

exists.  Minor C-class activity was also observed in Region 9839

(S18W20).  New Regions 9844 (N22E33), and 9845 (N15E71) were numbered

today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate.  Region 9830 is capable of producing isolated M-class

flares with the slight chance of a major flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled

periods early in the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.  The minor

geomagnetic disturbance expected today following the 20 Feb CME, has

not yet materialized.  It is unlikely that we will see any impact

from this CME.

III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb

Class M    60/55/50

Class X    10/10/05

Proton     10/10/05

PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           23 Feb 188

Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  190/185/185

90 Day Mean        23 Feb 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  010/015-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/15/15

Minor storm           15/10/10

Major-severe storm    10/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                35/20/20

Minor storm           20/10/10

Major-severe storm    10/05/05