NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low with only two weak C-class X-ray
flares.  Region 9354 (S09W59) grew in size, but maintained a
relatively simple magnetic configuration.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.  An isolated active period
occurred between 06Z and 09Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to
be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 145
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01