NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from a number of active regions. Region 9742 (N10W29) remains the
largest sunspot group currently on the disk. Although it continues
to grow in sunspot number and area it has yet to produce significant
flare activity. New Region 9754 (S09E61) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9742 appears to be the most likely source of
M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 255
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  260/265/270
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01