NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 23 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 23 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 9283
(S14E65) produced numerous impulsive, low-level C-class subflares.
No significant changes were observed in any of the visible regions.
New Region 9284 (N05W07) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Active to minor storm levels were observed during 23/0000-0600 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period with active periods possible during the first day.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Dec 191
Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        23 Dec 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec  017/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01