Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
September 22, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Although the x-ray
background was elevated all day, and significant white light growth
occurred in a few regions, the largest flare activity was just a 
C8/Sf at 0645 UTC from Region 9632 (S18E45). Numerous mid-sized
C-class events occurred from a number of the 13 spotted regions
visible. Region 9622 (N12W32) grew dramatically in white light, but
is still dwarfed by Regions 9628 (S17E25) and 9632, measuring 630
and 710 millionths respectively. Two new regions came into view,
9633 (N23E75) and 9634 (N12E76).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9622, 9628, and 9632 are each capable of M-class
x-ray flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A brief interval of active
conditions occurred 0900-1500 UTC as the IMF Bz vector turned
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 255
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  260/265/270
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 166
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.