NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Sep 22 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. Although the x-ray background was elevated all day, and significant white light growth occurred in a few regions, the largest flare activity was just a C8/Sf at 0645 UTC from Region 9632 (S18E45). Numerous mid-sized C-class events occurred from a number of the 13 spotted regions visible. Region 9622 (N12W32) grew dramatically in white light, but is still dwarfed by Regions 9628 (S17E25) and 9632, measuring 630 and 710 millionths respectively. Two new regions came into view, 9633 (N23E75) and 9634 (N12E76). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9622, 9628, and 9632 are each capable of M-class x-ray flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A brief interval of active conditions occurred 0900-1500 UTC as the IMF Bz vector turned southward. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep Class M 70/70/70 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Sep 255 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 260/265/270 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 166 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 010/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
