NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Nov 22 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. The largest, and most notable, event of the period was a M3/2n flare from Region 9698 (S25W68) at 22/2036 UTC. An associated 630 sfu tenflare and Type-II radio sweep (estimated velocity 890 km/s) were also observed, and an energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period. This event also produced a greatly enhanced 10cm noon flux observation of 283 sfu, so the morning value of 190 sfu was substituted to better represent the background flux for the period. The source region for this event (Region 9698) is particularly remarkable, after having decayed to its present alpha magnetic configuration (a single Hsx spot, with 110 millionths areal coverage), following ten days on the visible disk without any other optical or x-ray activity observed. Region 9704 (S18W38) also produced an M-class event, a M1/1f event at 22/1708 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today: 9713 (N08E03) and 9714 (S11E36). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for the next three days. Region 9704 is expected to remain a principle source of flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. An energetic proton flux enhancement was in progress, but below threshold, at the end of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled through November 23, with an increase to active and isolated minor storm conditions expected for November 24 and 25, due to yesterday's and today's CME activity. An energetic proton event is expected to develop within the next few hours due to the flare event described in section 1A above. III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Nov 190 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 218 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 010/010-018/020-020/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/30 Minor storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/35/35 Minor storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/10/10
