NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 22 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z

to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region

9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC

as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo

CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a

slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region

9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth

may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained

minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively

stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level

M-class flare during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A

greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at

22/2020 UTC in the wake of today’s long-duration M1 flare. The event

was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period

with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the

period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on

25 March in response to today’s CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton

event is expected to end early on 23 March.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

Class M    40/40/40

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     99/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           22 Mar 172

Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  170/165/165

90 Day Mean        22 Mar 212

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  005/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  010/010-010/012-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/30/30

Minor storm           15/15/15

Major-severe storm    05/05/05