NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Jul 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. X-ray emission remained
below C-level during the past 24 hours. Region 9543 (S22W19) remains
the largest group on the disk and showed slight growth in some of
the middle spots. Region 9545 (N09W57) showed some growth but was
very stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is, however, a very slight chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 9543.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes declined from high
levels at 21/2325 UTC and remained below this threshold for the
remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. A slight
increase to unsettled with a possibility for isolated active periods
is predicted for the second and third days due to coronal hole
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 140
Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 22 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 007/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/05