NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 22 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z

to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region

9791 (S02W46) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 22/0900 UTC.  The

sunspot group appears to have simplified somewhat since the flare

occurred, reducing penumbral coverage to about half of what was

observed yesterday.  Region 9789 (N18W42) produced an impulsive

C5/Sf flare at 22/1313 UTC and has also been in decay since flare

occurrence.  One event of note, an optically uncorrelated near long

duration C1 flare occurred at 22/0758 UTC.  This flare had an

associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of

1017 km/s.  LASCO imagery doesn’t indicate earth directed CME

activity with any of today’s events.  Regions 9787 (S06E19) and 9788

(N18E00) have shown growth over the period as both regions have

acquired gamma classification to their magnetic structures.  No new

regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low to moderate levels.  Regions 9787 and 9788 have the potential of

producing M-class flare activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

Class M    50/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           22 Jan 229

Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  235/235/235

90 Day Mean        22 Jan 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  007/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  006/008-006/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor storm           01/01/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/25

Minor storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01