NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Jan 2001

:Product: 0122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Jan 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/Sf flare
at 21/2312Z from region 9311 (N05W48). This group has shown slow
growth during the past 24 hours and produced a few additional
subflares. Region 9313 (S07E15) continues to be the largest region
on the disk and shows some magnetic complexity, but could only
muster one C-class subflare during the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. Regions 9313 and 9311 appear
to have the best potential for producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled during the past 24
hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons was observed at
geostationary orbit, but peak fluxes (around 3 pfu) remained below
event level. These particles are likely to have been accelerated by
the fast CME of 20 January, which was associated with an M7 x-ray
flare.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active over the next two days, with a fair
chance for some isolated storm periods. The increase is anticipated
with the arrival of enhanced solar wind from the two CME events of
20 January. In addition, currently enhanced levels of medium energy
protons observed by ACE indicate the imminent arrival of an
interplanetary shock sometime during the next 12 hours. A decrease
to unsettled to slightly active is expected to occur on the third
day.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jan 162
Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        22 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  025/025-025/025-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/25
Minor storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15
.