NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low with only a few weak C-class
X-ray flares.  Region 9354 (S09W45) maintained its size, but lost
much of the magnetic complexity that had developed yesterday.  New
region 9361 (S17E07) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 146
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb  145/145/145
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  005/006-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01