NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Feb 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low with only a few weak C-class
X-ray flares. Region 9354 (S09W45) maintained its size, but lost
much of the magnetic complexity that had developed yesterday. New
region 9361 (S17E07) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 146
Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 22 Feb 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 005/006-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01