NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 9749 (S08E43)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 21/2152 UTC.  Three additional optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed during the period.  Region
9742 (N10W16) continues to be the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk.  This region was stable and appears to
have slightly decreased in areal coverage during the period.  A
15-degree filament near S19E26 disappeared sometime between 22/0108
UTC and 22/0225 UTC.  A second, smaller, filament disappeared near
N15E49 between 22/1636 UTC and 22/1653 UTC.  New Regions 9752
(S14W19) and 9753 (S20E67) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 9742 remains capable of producing
M-class flares and there is a chance for an isolated major flare
from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  High latitudes may
experience isolated active conditions on days two and three of the
period as a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to become
geoeffective.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 243
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  245/250/250
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  008/010-010/012-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/50/40
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05