NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 22 Dec 2000

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 22 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9280
(N09E35) showed an increase in spot count and penumbral coverage.
This large, moderately complex region produced isolated, low-level
C-class subflares as it continued to gradually develop. No
significant changes were observed in the remaining regions. New
Region 9283 (S15E79) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9280.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to active levels during the first two
days of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects. Field
activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on the
third day as coronal hole effects subside.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 190
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  190/190/190
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  015/015-015/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01