NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9704 (S17W24) was
the sole source of all the optical activity, and remains the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the visible disk.  The
largest event of the period was a C6/Sf at 21/1818 UTC.  A more
significant, long duration C4/Sf occurred during 21/1207-1650 UTC,
with peak flux observed at 21/1458 UTC.  This event was accompanied
by a Type-IV radio sweep, and a full halo CME was evident in
SOHO/LASCO imagery.  New Region 9712 (N13E71) was numbered today as
it rotated into view on the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through 23 November.  A shock
arrival is expected early on 24 November, in association with the
CME activity described in section 1A above.  Geomagnetic field
activity is expected to increase on that date, with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 184
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  175/175/170
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  008/008-010/010-018/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/10