Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
March 21, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Mar 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9373 (S07W82) produced
two M-class events.  The first was an M1 at 20/2104 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep.  This event was confirmed by visual
observation from the Sacramento Peak Observatory.  The second event
was an M1/0n at 21/0237 UTC.  Two new regions were numbered today as
Region 9391(S04W15) and 9392 (N20W17).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions.  Since
21/0300 UTC the geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to
unsettled conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active.  Effects from a high speed
coronal hole stream are expected early in the three day period. 
Higher levels of activity are also possible as a result of the
recent CME occurrences.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 159
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar  155/150/140
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  027/066
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  025/020-015/018-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/30/30
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.