NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Mar 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Mar 21 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9373 (S07W82) produced two M-class events. The first was an M1 at 20/2104 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. This event was confirmed by visual observation from the Sacramento Peak Observatory. The second event was an M1/0n at 21/0237 UTC. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 9391(S04W15) and 9392 (N20W17). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions. Since 21/0300 UTC the geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet to unsettled conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active. Effects from a high speed coronal hole stream are expected early in the three day period. Higher levels of activity are also possible as a result of the recent CME occurrences. III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar Class M 60/60/60 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Mar 159 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 027/066 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 025/020-015/018-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/25/25 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 60/30/30 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
