Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 21, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high during the past 24 hours
due to an M7/2b flare at 20/2120Z from Region 9313 (S07E28). The
event was accompanied by a type II radio sweep and was also
associated with a CME. Yesterday's M1 flare (at 20/1847Z) was also
associated with a CME. The first of these two CMEs appeared to move
slowly and showed a full-halo signature, whereas the second CME was
fast and confined to a region off the East limb of the Sun. The
remainder of today's activity consisted of a couple low-level
C-class events. Three new sunspot regions were assigned today:
Region 9319 (S20W43), Region 9320 (S25E01) and Region 9321 (S05E69).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9313 is the main threat for M-class level
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Most
of today's activity was quiet to unsettled, Activity was enhanced
between 0900-1800Z, with mostly active levels, and a minor storm
period from 0900-1200Z. Solar wind data indicated two sector
boundary crossings during the past 24 hours, which may be related to
the geomagnetic activity.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next 24 hours. An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected for the 2nd and
3rd days, in response to the full-halo CME of 20 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 152
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  010/008-018/010-018/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.