NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Several C-class X-ray events
occurred with the highest being a C6/Sf produced by Region 9354
(S08W32) at 21/1427Z.  Region 9354 has stayed about the same in size
and number of spots but has increased in magnetic complexity since
yesterday.  New Region 9360 (S11E58) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
However, the is a chance for an isolated M-class event from either
Region 9354 or Region 9359 (N10E64).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  A non-Earth directed
CME occurred yesterday behind the NE limb.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    20/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 144
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  150/150/150
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01