Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Dec 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
December 21, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity remained low. Region 9280 (N08E48)
produced frequent low-level C-class subflares. This region possessed
a modest degree of magnetic complexity and showed a minor increase
in spot count and penumbral coverage. The remaining regions were
stable and simply structured. New Region 9282 (N19E68) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9280.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak
interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at around 21/1100
UTC, presumably from the halo-CME observed on 18 December.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. Intermittent active periods will be possible during 23 - 24
December due to coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Dec 195
Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  195/195/190
90 Day Mean        21 Dec 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  012/012-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.