NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 21 Apr 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Apr 21 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a 
C8 x-ray burst that occurred at 20/2134 UTC. No optical flare
reports were received but space-based images identify Region 9433
(N16E40) as the source.  Regions 9436 (S11E72) and 9437 (N08E76)
were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9433 is expected to be the source of most activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Apr 191
Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr  200/210/220
90 Day Mean        21 Apr 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr  010/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  005/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01