NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  A M1.5/Sn
occurred in new  Region 9631 (N08W15) which has been active since
its emergence.  Six C-class flares also occurred during the period,
the largest a C7.8 in Region 9628 (S18E51).  Region 9628 has
increased in magnetic complexity to a Beta-Gamma and increased in
spot count.  Region 9620 (N12E17) has also increased in magnetic
complexity to a Beta-Gamma.  New Region 9630 (N27W36) and Region
9632 (S18E76) were also numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 9628 and Region 9620 are becoming more complex
and could produce M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions may
occur early in the period due to a CME observed on 18 SEP O1.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 227
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep  230/230/230
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  012/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01