NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Nov 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Nov 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low. Region 9704 (S18W10)
continued to produce C-class subflares. This region maintains most
of its sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W45) is
decaying and has not produced significant activity. New Region 9711
(S16W23) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 remains the most likely candidate for
M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The CME that
elevated activity levels yesterday has passed. The greater than 10
MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit has ended (start 19/1230,
peak 34 pfu at 20/0010, and end 20/1420 UTC).
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 185
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 218
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01