NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503
(N16W20) produced a C4/1f flare at 20/2044 UTC. It was the largest
active region on the disk and maintained a minor degree of magnetic
complexity. Region 9506 (N19E08) was stable and showed signs of
gradual decay. Region 9501 (S13W50) produced a C4/Sf flare at
19/2326 UTC associated with a CME that was not Earth-directed. This
region showed no significant changes during the period and remained
a moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group. New Regions 9510
(S06W35) and 9511 (N11E53) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare will be possible
during the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels due to
coronal hole effects.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period with brief active periods possible during the first day as
coronal hole effects subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half
of the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 199
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun  195/190/190
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  012/013-010/011-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01