NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 20 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z

to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Activity consisted

of several minor C-class flares.  The most significant was a C3/Sf

flare from Region 9788 (N17E27), which occurred at 20/1552 UTC.

Minor growth was observed in this region during the period, although

it remains a simple bipolar complex.  Little, if any, changes during

the period were evident in Regions 9783 (S11W25), 9785 (N11W39),

9786 (S25W45), and 9787 (S07E46).  Newly numbered Region 9791

(S03W19) shows some promise, evidenced by a rapidly growing spot

complex.  Regions 9792 (N07E23), 9793 (S15E32), and 9794 (N11E65)

were also numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

predominantly low levels.  Although, Regions 9785, 9786, 9887, and

9788 exhibit the potential to produce M-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  However, isolated

active conditions may exist on day one of the forecast period due to

coronal hole eff8831.

III.  Event Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan

Class M    45/45/45

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           20 Jan 222

Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  225/235/240

90 Day Mean        20 Jan 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  011/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  006/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  008/008-006/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/20/20

Minor storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                30/25/20

Minor storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    06/02/02