NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Feb 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9354 (S08W20) produced
a couple of minor C-class X-ray events.  Other minor C-class events
occurred but were optically uncorrelated.  Minor growth was observed
in Region 9358 (S08E20) while Region 9354 displayed no significant
change in area or number of spots.  New Region 9359 (N10E74) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
There is a chance for an isolated minor M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with one period
of isolated active conditions observed in the mid latitudes from
20/0900 - 1200Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 146
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  145/150/150
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01