Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Dec 2000

By SpaceRef Editor
December 20, 2000
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2000 Dec 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 9272
(N14W59), 9278 (N09E23), and 9279 (S13E41) each produced isolated,
low-level C-class subflares. No significant changes were observed in
any of the sunspot groups. Region 9280 (N08E61), which was stable
during the period, may possess a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma structure), but analysis was difficult due to
limb proximity. New Region 9281 (N07E39) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Regions 9278 or 9280.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during the first
two days of the period due to an expected CME passage. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the final day.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Dec 201
Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec  200/195/195
90 Day Mean        20 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec  004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  015/020-020/025-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/20
Minor storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/01

SpaceRef staff editor.