NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 20 Aug 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 20 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  19/2100Z
to 20/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Both Regions 9582  (N28E05) and
9585 (N15E22) produced C-class subflares. The most interesting
activity was an eruptive prominence on the limb (EPL) near southeast
20 at about 20/1920 UTC. The event was accompanied by a
long-duration C2 x-ray burst, a type II sweep, and other radio
output that included 120 sfu at 2695 Mhz and 8100 sfu at 245 Mhz.
New Regions 9589 (N15W21) and 9590 (S28E80) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 156
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug  155/155/155
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 152
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  010/010-010/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01