NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Sep 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Regions 9591
(S18W65) and 9601 (N14E08 produced three M-class events between
them.  The largest was an M3/2n at 02/1348 UTC from Region 9591. 
Both of these regions have decayed slightly since yesterday, but
Region 9591 continues to retain a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.  New Region 9603 (S08E64) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region 9591 and 9601 capable of producing a
major flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active
conditions are possible for September 03 and 04.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 183
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 157
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  015/015-012/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01