NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity – 2 Oct 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Oct 02 2220 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate with 3 M-class flares and 
3 C-class flares.  A M1.2/SF occurred in Region 9632 (S21W89) at
01/2340 UTC and a M1.0/SF in Region 9641 (S14E07) at 02/1123 UTC.  A
M1.4 occurred with no optical correlation.  Two new regions were
numbered today, Region 9647 (S16E31) and Region 9648 (S04E78).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels.  Region 9632(S21W89) has major flare
potential for the first day of the period.  Region 9636 (N14W41)
remains a beta-Gamma configuration and has M-class flare potential. 
Old Region 9608 is due to return on the first day of the period as
Region 9632 rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity reached minor storm level.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux peaked at 2360 PFU 02/0810 UTC.  Flux levels
declined over the remainder of the period, but remained at event
levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible.  Analyst of the CME that occurred at 01/0530 UTC indicates
it was likely a backside event and will have limited impact.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    20/20/15
Proton     15/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 201
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  205/195/190
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  025/050
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  015/020-015/040-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/15
Minor storm           30/20/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/40/25
Minor storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05