NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 May 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 May 02 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares

occurred. Region 9934 (S18E62) is the largest and probably the most

magnetically complex sunspot group on the disk. The region appears

to contain some mixed polarities, and possibly a delta

configuration, but is still too close to the limb for certainty. New

Regions 9935 (S18E33) and 9936 (S15E42) were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. C-class events are possible from a number of regions.

Region 9934 appears to be the most capable of M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 May-05 May

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 May 169

Predicted   03 May-05 May  175/180/185

90 Day Mean        02 May 190

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  004/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  005/008-005/008-005/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                25/25/25

Minor storm           10/10/10

Major-severe storm    05/05/05