NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Mar 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Mar 02 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z

to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 9845 (N18W18) produced

the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 02/2016 UTC.  Earlier,

an impressive prominence erupted off the southeast limb, near

S43E90, beginning at about 02/1345 UTC.  This event was visible in

SOHO/EIT and H-alpha imagery, and a subsequent CME was seen in LASCO

imagery, though not appearing earth-directed.  A slight x-ray

enhancement accompanied this event, and persisted through the

remainder of the period.  New Region 9853 (S24E69) was numbered

today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be

predominantly low.  A chance for isolated M-class activity exists

for Region 9845.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with some isolated unsettled

periods during 02/1500-2100 UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one.  Onset of high

speed stream effects from a large, positive-polarity coronal hole

are expected to develop during day two, and persist for the

remainder of the forecast period, with active conditions likely and

isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes possible.

III.  Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

Class M    35/35/35

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Mar 191

Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar  185/185/180

90 Day Mean        02 Mar 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  007/008-010/010-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/25/35

Minor storm           05/10/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/30/40

Minor storm           05/10/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01