NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 June 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jun 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9484 (S06E22)
produced several optical flares, the largest being a C1.3/Sf at
02/0019 UTC.  This region has exhibited growth in size, spot count
and plage intensity, and is currently in a Dao/beta-gamma
configuration.  Two new regions were numbered today:  9486 (N28W08)
and 9487 (N20E75).  New Region 9486 has emerged rapidly in a
Dao/beta configuration, but has not yet produced any notable flare
activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  A chance for isolated moderate flare activity
exists for Regions 9484 and 9486.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. 
The onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably positioned
coronal hole have been evident over the last 24 hours.  Minor storm
conditions were observed during 02/0000-0300 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible 
through June 3, while coronal hole effects remain in progress. 
Activity is expected to taper off through June 4 and 5, to mainly
quiet to unsettled conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
Class M    25/30/35
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jun 134
Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  137/140/145
90 Day Mean        02 Jun 169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun  020/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  012/015-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun-05 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01