NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Jan 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jan 02 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The most interesting events of the last 24 hours were two long-duration C-class x-ray flares -- a C7 at 02/0811 UTC and a C6 at 02/1807 UTC. Neither flare seemed to be associated with activity on the visible disk. SOHO images suggest that the source may be behind the northeast limb although this is a preliminary analysis and not a certainty. New Regions 9295 (S12E73) and 9296 (N10E76) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The most likely source of activity on the disk remains Region 9289 (S07W10). Activity levels may increase if the source of today's long-duration flares is in fact beyond the northeast limb and soon to rotate onto the visible disk. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, becoming unsettled to active by the end of the forecast period due to a high-speed coronal hole stream. III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Jan 176 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 172 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/012-010/015-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
