Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Jan 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
January 2, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The most interesting events of
the last 24 hours were two long-duration C-class x-ray flares -- a
C7 at 02/0811 UTC and a C6 at 02/1807 UTC. Neither flare seemed to
be associated with activity on the visible disk. SOHO images suggest
that the source may be behind the northeast limb although this is a
preliminary analysis and not a certainty. New Regions 9295 (S12E73)
and 9296 (N10E76) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The most likely source of activity on the disk remains
Region 9289 (S07W10). Activity levels may increase if the source of
today's long-duration flares is in fact beyond the northeast limb
and soon to rotate onto the visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet, becoming unsettled to active by the end of the
forecast period due to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 176
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/012-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.