Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Feb 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
February 2, 2001
Filed under ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Feb 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare and
CME was observed at 02/0918Z. EIT imagery indicate Region 9327
(N17W36) as the likely source of the activity. Another long duration
event reached the C3 level at 02/2037Z and was still in progress at
issue time. The apparent source of this event was enhanced plage on
either side of a filament near N21E54. A CME was also observed from
this event. Region's 9330 (N26E31), and 9334 (N11E67) are both E
type groups, but were relatively quiet this period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Regions 9330 and 9334.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions between 02/0000 - 0300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days. Ejecta from today's CMEs do not appear earthbound.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 166
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb  170/175/175
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  005/007-007/008-007/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.