NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Feb 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Feb 02 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare and CME was observed at 02/0918Z. EIT imagery indicate Region 9327 (N17W36) as the likely source of the activity. Another long duration event reached the C3 level at 02/2037Z and was still in progress at issue time. The apparent source of this event was enhanced plage on either side of a filament near N21E54. A CME was also observed from this event. Region's 9330 (N26E31), and 9334 (N11E67) are both E type groups, but were relatively quiet this period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 9330 and 9334. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of unsettled conditions between 02/0000 - 0300Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. Ejecta from today's CMEs do not appear earthbound. III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Feb 166 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 172 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 005/007-007/008-007/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
