NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 02 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region
9714 (S09W95) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 02/1500 UTC
as it crossed the west limb. A post-flare loop prominence system 
followed this flare. Region 9715 (N04W37) produced isolated C-class
subflares. It remained the most impressive region on the disk, but
showed signs of gradual decay with a modest decrease in area.
However, it remained magnetically complex as a magnetic delta
configuration persisted within its interior spots. Region 9718
(S06E16) showed minor growth and produced isolated subflares, one of
which reached C-class. Some polarity mixing persisted in the trailer
portion of this region. New Region 9725 (S11W45) emerged during the
period. New Region 9726 (S15E69) rotated into view today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate during the period with isolated M-class flares
likely. There will also be a chance for an isolated major flare
during the period from Region 9715.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected. However, there will be a chance for active periods during
04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare from Region 9715.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 245
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  245/245/245
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  010/010-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01