NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Sep 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Sep 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2001
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low with numerous C-Class flares.
Region 9628 (S18E64) produced the largest flare of the day, a C7.5
at 19/1845 UTC. This region is the return of old Region 9591, which
produced a major flare during its last rotation. A long duration
C6.7 event occurred at 19/1607 UTC. LASCO/EIT imagery indicated a
partial halo CME originated from Region 9620 (N12E30) at 18/1531 UTC
with a plane of sky speed estimated at 332 km/s. Region 9629
(N26E38) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar forecast is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9628 (S18E64), 9620 (N12E30) and 9616 (S13W24)
all have the potential to produce M-Class flares. Region 9628 also
has a slight possibility of producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day, increasing to
unsettled to active levels on the second and third day due to an
expected CME passage.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 10/10/10
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 199
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 200/200/195
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 012/010-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15/30/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/04