NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2001
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2001 Jul 19 2200 UT # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate with a single M1/1b flare from Region 9537 (S08W66) at 19/1004 UTC. Outside of the M1, the only other significant event was a C5/Sf from Region 9546 (S17E19) at 18/2141 UTC. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be primarily low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled except for one active period at high latitudes. The solar wind continued to exhibit characteristics of a high speed stream. The flux of greater than two MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole. The flux of greater than two MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is forecast to reach high levels through the period. III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jul 142 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 010/012-008/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01
