Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Jul 2001

By SpaceRef Editor
July 19, 2001
Filed under , ,
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jul 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate with a single M1/1b flare
from Region 9537 (S08W66) at 19/1004 UTC. Outside of the M1, the
only other significant event was a C5/Sf from Region 9546 (S17E19)
at 18/2141 UTC.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
primarily low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled except for one active
period at high latitudes.  The solar wind continued to exhibit
characteristics of a high speed stream.  The flux of greater than
two MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active
periods are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal hole.
The flux of greater than two MeV  electrons at geosynchronous orbit
is forecast to reach high levels through the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 142
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.