NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jan 19 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z

to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region

9787 (S07E59) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 19/1005 UTC with

minor radio emission. Minor growth occurred in this region, but it

remained simply structured. Minor growth also occurred in Regions

9786 (S25W32) and 9788 (N17E40), but both remained simple bipoles.

Region 9788 produced a low-level C-class flare late in the period.

Region 9782 showed a minor decrease in area and continued to display

minor polarity mixing within its southern leader spots. A large

filament disappeared from the northeast quadrant late on 18 January.

SOHO EIT/LASCO images showed that the filament gradually disappeared

and was followed by a relatively slow, non-Earth directed CME. New

Regions 9789 (N15W02) and 9790 (N28E25) were numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low

to moderate. There will be a chance for an isolated low-level

M-class flare during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.

Activity increased to unsettled to minor storm levels during 19/1200

– 1800 UTC, then decreased to mostly unsettled levels. The increased

activity was likely due to coronal hole effects.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the

period. However, brief active conditions will be possible early in

the period due to coronal hole effects.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

Class M    40/40/40

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 Jan 214

Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  220/225/230

90 Day Mean        19 Jan 223

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  012/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  012/010-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/30/20

Minor storm           10/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                45/35/25

Minor storm           15/10/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01