NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Jan 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Jan 19 2200 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  A long duration
M1/Sf flare occurred in Region 9313 (S07E57), max at 19/1710 UTC. 
This event consisted of several eruptive centers that brightened at
various times over the duration of the flare.  A small filament in
this region was also reported active during the event and a CME was
observed.  Several new regions were numbered:  Region  9315
(S28E44), Region 9316 (S17E75), and Region 9317 (N08W72).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated M class events are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jan 153
Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  150/145/150
90 Day Mean        19 Jan 175
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01