Status Report

NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Feb 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
February 19, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Feb 19 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as
well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually
develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the
region’s complexity lies within its large leader spots where
multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the
past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class
flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 – 2400 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a
slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF Yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 189
Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 195/200/205
90 Day Mean 19 Feb 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.