NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Feb 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Feb 19 2210 UT

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z

to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region

9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as

well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated

with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually

develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the

region’s complexity lies within its large leader spots where

multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the

past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class

flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were

unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain

at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.

Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.

Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 – 2400 UTC.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic field activity is

expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a

slight chance for a proton flare during the period.

III.  Event Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    10/10/10

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       Yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           19 Feb 189

Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  195/200/205

90 Day Mean        19 Feb 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  006/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  007/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/25

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01