NOAA SEC Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 19 Dec 2001

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Dec 19 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 9739 (S14W82)
produced occasional C-class events and the single M-class flare of
the period, an M1/Sf at 19/1706Z. This region has been growing
steadily since appearing on the disk on 13 Dec and now exceeds 400
millionths of white light area as it rotates around the west limb. 
Region 9733 (N13W75) continues to produce minor C-class events as
it approaches the west limb. Region 9742 (N12E27) maintains moderate
magnetic complexity and size, and produced a C4 flare at 19/0232Z).
New Regions 9746 (S18E08) and 9747 (N12E71) were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9733 and 9739 have potential to produce an
M-class flare on the west limb. Region 9742 also has a slim chance
of producing an M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The IMF Bz was mostly
southward this period creating prolonged disturbed periods.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled
conditions are likely on days two and three as a southern coronal
hole moves into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 208
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  205/195/185
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 219
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  008/008-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01